A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
